Behind the Curtain – Republican Political Momentum: Fact or Fiction?

Behind the Curtain is a weekly look at the inner workings of the politics, policy, and polling that influence and shape North Carolina’s legislative elections.

We’ve all seen the anecdotal evidence of a resurgence among Republicans and Conservatives in North Carolina, huge turnout at health care town hall meetings, thousands of people attending TEA Party rallies, record attendance at Republican County Conventions and for the first time in history Republicans filing for all 50 seats in the State Senate.  But what does it all mean?

After all, this isn’t the first time elected representatives find themselves confronted at town hall meetings by citizens concerned about the direction of our government or the first time the elective representatives dismissed citizens’ concerns as a “failure to understand what we’re trying to do for you”:

Is this an example of a few very upset people making a lot of noise or is this real energy and anger that will impact the November elections?

Democrats are pushing the first argument, claiming that the noise is coming from a small group of people angry about the outcome of last presidential election.  These same Democrats are personally attacking the protesters trying to diminish their concerns by portraying them as kooks or wing nuts on the political fringes.  Senator Linda Garrou (D-Forsyth), the Democrat Chairwoman of the State Senate Finance committee, derisively called these concerned citizens part of the “Teabag Movement”.

The Civitas Institute, a Raleigh based conservative think tank, commissions regular statewide polling of public policy issues in North Carolina.  For political junkies trying to determine which way the political winds are blowing, the legislative generic ballot provides the best measure of North Carolina’s political environment.  A generic ballot question simply asks, “If the election for State Legislature were held today would you be voting for the Democratic or Republican candidate?”

The graph and chart below show the results of the legislative generic ballot question from the Civitas Poll in October, immediately before the general election, in 2004, 2006 and 2008.  It also shows the most recent results from the Civitas Institute’s most recent statewide legislative generic ballot:

As you can see, Republicans hold a 2-point lead on the legislative generic ballot quantifying the anecdotal evidence of a resurgence in political fortunes for conservatives and Republicans.  To put this in historical context, the 2-point Republican advantage represents the first time since 1994 that Republicans led Democrats on the generic ballot for State Legislature.

This should help put to rest the misleading narrative advanced by Democrats that the anger and frustration expressed in town hall meetings and at Tea Parties is a result of the actions of a few very loud people on the political fringe.

The practical implications for State Senate elections resulting from Republicans’ improving political fortunes is substantial.  Republicans in the State Senate gained one seat in the 2008 election despite a political environment that strongly favored the Democrats (legislative generic ballot D+8).  The change in the political environment in favor of Republicans creates an excellent political opportunity for State Senate Republicans to win the 6 seats necessary to take a majority in the body for the first time in over 100 years.

Next week’s Behind the Curtain: Gauging the Political Landscape:  Can Republicans overcome a Democrat redistricting gerrymander and win the State Senate?

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