Behind the Curtain: Gauging the Political Landscape
Behind the Curtain is a weekly look at the inner workings of the politics, policy, and polling that influence and shape North Carolina’s legislative elections.
Today, we examine the State Senate Districts to answer the question: Can Republicans overcome a Democrat redistricting gerrymander and win the State Senate?
As this 1812 political cartoon, lampooning the Massachusetts Legislature’s “Dragon District”, shows, gerrymandering voting districts is not a recent phenomenon.
In 2002, current North Carolina Congressman Brad Miller, then a Democrat State Senator, chaired the Legislative Committee responsible for drawing new Congressional and Legislative districts. Miller drew a new set of Congressional Districts that produced 8 Democrat Congressmen and 5 Republican Congressmen. In an incredibly self-serving act, even by political standards, Miller also drew a Congressional District for himself.
When Miller finished the Democrats’ Congressional gerrymander he went to work on a Democrat gerrymander of State Legislative Districts. To make a long story short, the gerrymander was so egregious that Federal and State courts overturned it. In a series of lawsuits against the State Board of Elections and Democratic elected officials Jim Black, Marc Basnight, Mike Easley and Roy Cooper, Republicans established that North Carolina’s Constitution required Legislators to avoid splitting counties when drawing legislative districts.
This ruling forced the Democrats to draw districts that do not guarantee a Democrat majority. But the question remains, do the districts the Democrats drew in 2002 provide Republicans with a real chance to take the majority in the State Senate?
To answer that question we need to look at three measures:
1. Has a Republican won the district since the 2002 redistricting?
Republicans have won 5 of the most competitive State Senate seats currently controlled by Democrats clearly showing the Republican candidate can take the seat back in a good election year.
2. Does the district’s Partisan Voter Index Score, a measure of a district’s political leaning based on the district demographics and past election performance pioneered by Charlie Cook – the country’s preeminent nonpartisan election handicapper – modified and applied to NC Senate Districts by the Civitas Institute, favor Republicans or Democrats?
Senate Republicans can compete in any district that is D+4 or more Republican. With 7 districts having Republican leaning PVIs and another 6 districts that lean slightly Democrat, there are plenty of opportunities to pick up the 6 seats Republicans need to take a majority in the State Senate.
3. How have other statewide Republican candidates performed within the potentially competitive Senate Districts?
There are 13 State Senate districts that John McCain, George Bush and Richard Burr all won; demonstrating that Republican candidates can win if they have the right message.
Can Republicans overcome a Democrat redistricting gerrymander and win the State Senate?
Yes. Even with a Democrat redistricting gerrymander, there are thirteen competitive State Senate districts currently held by Democrats that are in play for Republican senate candidates in the 2010 election cycle. If Republicans can win just 6 of those seats they will take a majority in the State Senate for the first time in over 100 years.
Contribute today to help make a Republican Senate majority a reality.
Next week’s Behind the Curtain explores: Money, Money, Money: Why do State Senate Democrats have it and Republicans don’t?
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