Republicans Lead Generic Ballot, Have Momentum in Bid to Take State Senate

Recent polls are showing what many observers have been saying for months: 2010 represents the best chance Republicans have had to take control of the N.C. Senate in more than a decade.  Both Public Policy Polling and Civitas have released recent polls with good news for Republicans.  Republicans are seen leading and gaining momentum with voters on the generic ballot as our message of job creation and fiscal responsibility takes hold.

After showing Governor Bev Perdue’s popularity numbers in a sharp decline over the last month, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling goes on to assess Republican chances of gaining a majority in the General Assembly after November’s election.

If Perdue’s numbers continue to be this poor she’s likely to be a drag on Democratic legislative candidates this fall, and indeed North Carolina voters this month say they plan to support Republicans for the General Assembly by a 45-42 margin. That’s thanks to an eye popping 47-18 edge with independents and also because 89% of Republicans plan to support their party while only 78% of Democrats are committed to theirs. The GOP continues to have its best chance in over a decade to gain control of the legislature. …

Meanwhile, over at Civitas, Chris Hayes attempts to decipher from the generic ballot test where the momentum lies as we approach this fall’s elections and whether 2010 could be a repeat of 1994 for Republicans.

Civitas polling indicates that the November election could certainly reset the balance of power in the North Carolina General Assembly.  It is a similar story to what happened in 1994.

Indicators are based on a legislative generic ballot question asked every month in Civitas’ statewide poll:””If the election for North Carolina state legislature were held today, would you be voting:” for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

It’s a simple straightforward question that tries to find out the mindset of the voter. At this point in time, do voters have a preference for one party over the other at the state level? The result of this question allows broad trends to be discovered and, more importantly, establishes a consistent baseline that can be compared to on a month to month basis from one election cycle to another. Looking at the generic ballot question from Civitas’ March poll, the Republicans hold a two-point lead 37 percent to 35 percent. While this may seem insignificant, the slight lead for Republicans is significant for a couple of reasons. First, Democrats hold a 14 percentage point advantage in voter registration in North Carolina, so Democrats start out with a sizeable advantage based solely on registration. Second, this is only the third time in five years of Civitas polling that Republicans have held a generic ballot lead. Democrats have held, on average, a 3-5 point generic ballot lead each month over the history of Civitas’ polls.

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