Governing Magazine: N.C. Senate “In Play,” Republicans Poised To Make Gains

Governing magazine has released its initial survey of state legislatures and has rated both houses of the North Carolina General Assembly as in play.

The race to control the nation’s legislatures may be overshadowed during this year’s midterm elections by congressional and gubernatorial contests, but the battle is poised to be pivotal nonetheless.

This fall’s legislative elections — the last before the start of a new once-every-decade redistricting process — are unique for two reasons. According to this author’s estimates, more chambers are in play this year than in any cycle since at least 2002. Even more strikingly, the Democrats have vastly more at risk than the Republicans do.

“This is going to be an extremely challenging year for Democrats for a variety of reasons,” says Tim Storey, who analyzes elections for the National Conference of State Legislatures. “History is not on their side. Since 1900, the party in the White House loses seats in the legislature in every midterm except for 1934 and 2002. That’s a 2-25 losing streak for the party in the White House — a tough trend to break. Add to that the fact that Democrats are riding high right now at over 55 percent of all seats, and it shapes up to be possibly the worst election for Democrats since 1994.” …

Click here to read more…

In particular, Governing has this to say about N.C. Republicans’ chances to take over control of the state legislature next year.

In this purple-to-red Southern state where the Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, Democrats are arguably overrepresented in state government. So Republicans can expect gains in 2010, especially in the state Senate, where Democratic turnover is high. Both chambers lean Democratic, with the Senate more likely to flip, but these ratings could well shift in the GOP’s direction by fall.

Click here to read the full roster of ratings…

Tweet