NC Senate Scorecard: Democrats 19, Republicans 26

In the battle for the North Carolina Senate, political consultant and analyst John Davis has Republicans leading in 26 of the 50 races — enough to capture the majority. Of the 26 races where Davis says the GOP holds an advantage, 11 Republicans have no Democratic opponents, 9 are “likely winners,” and 6 are “favored.”

The analysis does not conclude that 26 is the ceiling for NC Senate Republicans.  Another 5 races are in the “toss-up” category.  Meaning, the GOP is leading or in a statistical dead-heat in 31 of North Carolina’s 50 state Senate races. Not only would the Democrats need to go 5 for 5 in the toss-up races to maintain their majority, they would need to come from behind in at least one of the Republican-leaning contests and protect the 2 seats where they have a slight advantage.

Analyzing all 50 NC Senate contests, Davis groups them as follows:

• 1 seat – Democrat winner
• 16 seats – Democrat likely winner
• 2 seats – Democrat favored
• 5 seats – Toss-ups
• 6 seats – Republican favored
• 9 seats – Republican likely winner
• 11 seats – Republican likely winner

In other words, the majority hinges on the 13 races in the middle.  Of those 13, Republicans are favored in 6, Democrats are favored in 2, and the remaining 5 are toss-ups. The five “toss-up” races are:

• SD-5: Louis Pate (R) vs. Don Davis (D)
• SD-10: Brent Jackson (R) vs. Dewey Hudson (D)
• SD-19: Wesley Meredith (R) vs. Margaret Dickson (D)
• SD-28: Trudy Wade (R), Gladys Robinson (D), Bruce Davis (I)
• SD-50: Jim Davis (R) vs. John Snow (D)

The six “Republican-leaning” districts are:

• SD-8: Bill Rabon (R) vs. David Redwine (D)
• SD-9: Thom Goolsby (R) vs. Jim Leutze (D)
• SD-15: Neal Hunt (R) vs. Charles Malone (D)
• SD-24: Rick Gunn (R) vs. Tony Foriest (D)
• SD-45: Dan Soucek (R) vs. Steve Goss (D)
• SD-47: Ralph Hise (R) vs. Joe Sam Queen (D)

The two “Democrat-leaning” districts are:

• SD-11: Buck Newton (R) vs. A.B. Swindell (D)
• SD-25: Jason Phibbs (R) vs. Bill Purcell (D)

If you would like to help the Republican NC Senate candidates in these crucial battleground races, please contribute to the cause and CLOSE THE GAP!

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